World Cup June 29 Recap — Germany and the Netherlands Crash Out

I have watched a lot of knockout football, and I am not sure I have ever seen a single day take a wrecking ball to the bracket the way June 29 did. Two of the heaviest names in the men’s game — Germany and the Netherlands — were both eliminated in penalty shootouts, on the same afternoon, by sides almost nobody had pencilled into the quarter-finals. Brazil needed until the sixth minute of stoppage time to put Japan away. And by the time the dust settled, Canada knew exactly who stands between them and a World Cup quarter-final. If you follow along on TSN here in Canada the way I do, this was the day the Round of 32 stopped being a formality and turned into a tournament.

Paraguay 1–1 Germany (4–3 pens) — The Upset of the Tournament

This is the result the whole tournament will remember. Germany, four-time world champions and ranked around 10th in the world, were taken to penalties by a Paraguay side sitting roughly 41st in the FIFA order — and lost. Havertz had put the Germans ahead on 54 minutes, but Enciso had already levelled things on 42, and after a 1–1 draw through extra time the shootout went Paraguay’s way 4–3. Reports framed it as potentially the greatest knockout upset in World Cup history, and it is hard to argue.

Germany head coach Julian Nagelsmann did not hide from it afterward: "There’s a real sense of dejection in the dressing room. Unfortunately, that’s how football works sometimes, some teams can win with simple means. And you have to defend against those means consistently. We took too long to make our opponent chase the game. … Our build-up play was too slow."

His opposite number, Paraguay’s Gustavo Alfaro, summed up the underdog’s art better than I ever could: "We don’t have the pedigree that allows us to dictate the terms of the game. We dance to the music we’re given… sometimes it’s cumbia, sometimes it’s tango, sometimes it’s rumba… today, it was polka."

Netherlands 1–1 Morocco (3–2 pens) — Atlas Lions Roar Again

If Germany’s exit was the shock, Morocco’s win was the story with the longest legs — because it directly shapes Canada’s tournament. The Netherlands led through Gakpo on 72 minutes, but Morocco would not go quietly: Diop rose for a header in the first minute of stoppage time (90+1) to force extra time, goalkeeper Verbruggen made several saves to keep the Dutch alive, and Morocco held their nerve to win the shootout 3–2. The Atlas Lions, semi-finalists not so long ago, are through again — and they will meet Canada in the Round of 16.

Brazil 2–1 Japan — Martinelli Strikes at the Death

Japan made Brazil work for it. Sano’s goal on 29 minutes had the Seleção chasing the game, but Casemiro levelled on 56, and just when extra time looked likely, Martinelli buried the winner in the fifth minute of stoppage time (90+5) for a 2–1 final. Neymar, back from a calf injury he carried into the final group game against Scotland, is fit for the run, and a Brazil side that looked vulnerable for an hour is into the last 16. The market noticed: Brazil’s outright winner price came in from 14.00 to 10.50 overnight.

What It Means for the Bracket

The headline is brutal for the European pedigree teams and clarifying for everyone else. Germany and the Netherlands are gone, which reshapes the entire winner board — France remain the favourites at around 4.40 as of the morning of June 30, with Brazil now shortened to 10.50. For the outright market and how the contenders stack up now, the tournament winner predictions page has the full tier list, and the Brazil and Morocco profiles carry the squad context behind two of the day’s biggest stories.

Mid-tournament lines move fast after results like these. Canadian-facing books such as Boomerang Bet and BetiBet were among those repricing the outright board on June 30 — always confirm the live CAD price before staking.

Odds quoted are decimal and current as of June 30, 2026. Markets move quickly during the tournament; confirm the live price with your sportsbook before wagering. 19+. Please wager responsibly.