World Cup 2026 Betting

Argentina vs Austria Preview — Messi Chases the World Cup Record

Updated July 2026
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Some matches you bet, and some you simply do not want to miss. Argentina against Austria on June 22 is both. The defending champions arrive in Arlington riding an eight-match winning run, and their captain stands one goal away from a record that has belonged to Miroslav Klose since 2014. Lionel Messi tied Klose’s all-time men’s World Cup mark of 16 goals with a hat-trick against Algeria, and at 38 — in what is almost certainly his final World Cup — he could break it against an Austria side that has quietly become one of Europe’s more awkward opponents. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET, which means Canadian fans get the marquee moment of the day over lunch.

A veteran soccer captain in a blue-and-white kit acknowledging a roaring crowd inside a covered World Cup stadium
Argentina’s captain enters the Austria match one goal short of the all-time World Cup scoring record.
  • Messi needs one goal to pass Miroslav Klose’s all-time men’s World Cup record of 16, having tied it with a hat-trick against Algeria.
  • Argentina are unbeaten this tournament on an eight-match winning run; a win virtually secures their advancement from Group J.
  • Argentina are 1.58 to win, the draw 3.65 and Austria 5.38; one model put Argentina around 65% and Austria around 14%.
  • Austria are without Christoph Baumgartner (out for the tournament) but captain David Alaba and Stefan Posch are available.

The Record on the Line

Klose scored his 16 World Cup goals across four tournaments from 2002 to 2014. Messi has done it across five, and the symmetry of him breaking it now — older, slower, but still the gravitational centre of this Argentina team — is the kind of sporting moment that pulls in viewers who do not normally watch the group stage. Argentina assistant coach Pablo Aimar was careful not to look past the opponent, noting that "Austria is a very tough team, as we’re seeing with the vast majority of the teams participating in this World Cup." That is the right tone. Records tend to arrive when a team focuses on the win and lets the milestone follow.

For Canadian audiences who adopted Argentina during their 2022 run, this is appointment viewing, and every Argentina match is on the Bell Media platforms with the full slate available across TSN and CTV.

Team News

Argentina come in close to full strength. Messi is fit, his earlier hamstring issue resolved, and he is coming off that hat-trick. Cristian Romero is available after an earlier knee problem, and Nahuel Molina is expected to start, with Gonzalo Montiel doubtful with a muscular issue. That is a settled, confident spine for a side that has not lost in this tournament.

Austria’s biggest blow came before kickoff: Christoph Baumgartner is out for the whole tournament after thigh surgery, a real loss to their attacking midfield. There is better news elsewhere — Stefan Posch is available after suffering a broken jaw against Jordan and being cleared to play in a brace, and David Alaba has shaken off a muscle concern. Alaba’s words carried respect but not fear: "We know what kind of opponent we’re up against, what kind of quality they have in their ranks, even besides Messi, but also what they’re capable of as a team."

Two soccer teams lined up in a stadium tunnel before walking out for a World Cup match
Austria respect Argentina’s depth “even besides Messi” — but arrive without the tournament-ended Christoph Baumgartner.

By the Numbers

The two nations have met twice before at this level, with Argentina taking a win and a draw — a 5–1 in 1980 and a 1–1 in 1990 in the records. Form could hardly be more lopsided right now: Argentina have won their last five, Austria arrive on a W-W-W-W-D run after a 3–1 win over Jordan. One projection framed it as roughly a 65% Argentina win against about 14% for Austria, with the rest to the draw. The decimal market agrees, pricing Argentina at 1.58.

The venue helps the favourite, too. AT&T Stadium in Arlington is a roofed, climate-controlled building, removing the heat-and-humidity variable that has dragged several daytime matches at this tournament into cagey, conservative affairs. A controlled environment tends to favour the more technical side, and that is Argentina.

The Betting Angle

I have said it on the daily card and I will repeat it here: 1.58 on Argentina is a fair price, but it is not where the value lives. A heavy favourite this short rewards you little for the genuine risk that a tournament knockout-style upset always carries. The more rewarding markets attach to the record chase. With Argentina expected to control possession and Austria forced to commit bodies forward at some stage, the chances should come — which puts Messi anytime-scorer and Argentina team-total-over markets in focus.

Example: A CAD 25 stake on Argentina at 1.58 returns CAD 39.50. The same CAD 25 on a longer Messi or team-total market returns far more if it lands — which is why I prefer those to the short moneyline here.

If you want to build around the result, the handicap line is the disciplined way to take short-priced favourite chalk without accepting a near-evens payout. Our Argentina team profile has the squad detail behind the run, the World Cup odds hub carries the live board, and the Golden Boot market is the natural home for a Messi-led top-scorer play.

Argentina shortened from roughly 11.00 to 9.00 in the outright winner market over the previous 24 hours after Messi’s hat-trick against Algeria. Mid-tournament lines move fast — confirm the live CAD price before staking.
What record can Messi break against Austria?
Messi sits on 16 World Cup goals, level with Miroslav Klose’s all-time men’s record. One goal against Austria would make him the outright record holder.
What are the odds for Argentina vs Austria?
Argentina are 1.58 to win, the draw is 3.65 and Austria are 5.38 in decimal odds as of June 22, 2026, ~10:00 AM ET.
Is Austria at full strength?
No. Christoph Baumgartner is out for the tournament after thigh surgery, though captain David Alaba and Stefan Posch (recovered from a broken jaw) are available.

Odds are decimal and current as of June 22, 2026, ~10:00 AM ET; they are indicative and subject to movement. Confirm live CAD prices with your sportsbook. 19+. Please wager responsibly.