World Cup June 22 Picks — Odds, Value and Predictions for Today

Monday gives Canadian soccer fans a full slate, and it starts early. If you are setting your card before the work day finishes, the first whistle on Argentina against Austria goes at 1:00 PM ET, and the night does not stop until Jordan and Algeria kick off at 11:00 PM ET out in Santa Clara. Four matches, two groups still wide open, and a defending champion chasing a record — there is plenty here for a disciplined bettor. Below I walk each fixture, give you the consensus decimal price, and land on the angle I would actually take. As always, the odds are a snapshot; I would rather miss a bet than chase a line that has already moved.

Argentina vs Austria — 1:00 PM ET, Arlington

Defending champions, eight straight wins, and a 38-year-old chasing history. Lionel Messi enters this one a single goal from breaking Miroslav Klose’s all-time men’s World Cup record of 16, which he tied with a hat-trick against Algeria. Argentina are 1.58 to win, with the draw at 3.65 and Austria out at 5.38. Austria are no pushovers — captain David Alaba said it plainly: "We know what kind of opponent we’re up against, what kind of quality they have in their ranks, even besides Messi, but also what they’re capable of as a team." But they are missing Christoph Baumgartner for the tournament, and the gap in quality is real.

At 1.58, the Argentina win is not where I look for value — the implied probability is already above 60%, and a side this deep into a winning run gets respected by the market. The more interesting angle is Messi to break the record on the day. With Argentina expected to dominate possession against a side that must, at some point, chase the game, the chances flow. My lean: Argentina to win, but the genuine interest is in Messi anytime-scorer and team-total-over markets rather than the short moneyline.

France vs Iraq — 5:00 PM ET, Philadelphia

This is the shortest price on the board for a reason. France are 1.08 to beat Iraq, with the draw a distant 7.68 and Iraq out at 27.84. Opta’s model gave France an 88.5% win probability, and Kylian Mbappé — already France’s all-time leading scorer after his brace against Senegal — could earn his 100th cap here. Iraq are at a World Cup for the first time since 1986 and arrived on the back of a 4–1 loss to Norway.

At 1.08 there is simply nothing to back on the result; you are risking CAD 100 to win CAD 8. The market for a game like this lives in the margin — team totals, France to win by multiple goals, and player props. I would not touch the moneyline. If you want France exposure, the handicap and over markets are where the number actually rewards the favouritism. Malo Gusto is a doubt with a foot knock, which only deepens an already-stacked French side.

Norway vs Senegal — 8:00 PM ET, MetLife Stadium

Here is the game of the day for a real contest. Norway are 2.04, the draw 3.41, and Senegal 3.22 — a board that genuinely cannot separate two good teams. Erling Haaland scored a brace on his World Cup debut and has now found the net in 11 straight competitive Norway games; Norway themselves have won 11 in a row. Senegal regrouped after losing to France and have Kalidou Koulibaly fit again at the back. Opta leaned Norway (45.0%) over the draw (25.4%) and Senegal (29.6%).

This is the one I would actually build around. Both teams have quality going forward and a point apiece does little for either, so I expect an open game. Haaland anytime scorer is the obvious play given his run, and for the 1X2, Norway at 2.04 is a fair price on a side in this kind of form — though I respect Senegal enough that a draw or the away side covering would not shock me. If you only play one match today, this is the most honest contest on the slate.

Jordan vs Algeria — 11:00 PM ET, Santa Clara

A late one for Eastern Canada, and the night-owls in B.C. get it at a more civilized 8:00 PM PT. Algeria are heavy favourites at 1.47, the draw 3.98, and Jordan well out at 6.24. Riyad Mahrez returns to the Algeria XI after being rested against Argentina. Jordan are at their first World Cup and Ali Olwan scored their first-ever goal at the tournament, but they were beaten 3–1 by Austria and face an Algeria side desperate to recover from a 3–0 loss to the champions.

Algeria’s quality should tell, but 1.47 on a team that just shipped three goals carries some risk, and Jordan have shown they will have a go. I am cautious here. If forced, Algeria to win is the logical call, but I would keep the stake light or look to the goals market rather than trusting a moneyline on a side still finding its feet.

How I Would Stake It

Three of these four games feature a favourite priced below 1.60, which is the trap of a day like this: it looks easy and pays almost nothing. The discipline is to resist stacking short-priced moneylines into a fragile parlay and instead pick the one or two spots where the price respects the risk. For me that is the Norway–Senegal contest and selective Messi and Haaland player markets. Our betting guide walks through bankroll basics if you are new to this, and the value bets page explains how I judge whether a price is actually worth taking.

Odds are decimal and consensus prices as of June 22, 2026, ~10:00 AM ET; they are indicative and subject to fast movement. Confirm live CAD prices with your sportsbook. 19+. Please wager responsibly.